Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $692,471$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{670,521.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 124.1)}}\) (asimptote \(670,521.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,780$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,646.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17,646.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,926$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,072$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,997.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 179.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,997.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $75$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 181.9)}}\) (asimptote \(109.4\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,016$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,712$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,592.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 176.8)}}\) (asimptote \(56,592.3\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $631$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{963.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 176.4)}}\) (asimptote \(963.8\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,043$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $152,404$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429,946.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 229.3)}}\) (asimptote \(429,946.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,605$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,837.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 226.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,837.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,392$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,330.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,330.4\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,063$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,280.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,280.0\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(85.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $86$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,516$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,462.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(101,462.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,052$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,839.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,839.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $776$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,936$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,440.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 160.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,440.5\))
Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $128$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(128.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,991$ on 2020-10-11