Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Egypt
  • Namibia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Mauritania
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Madagascar
  • Senegal

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $692,471$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{670,521.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 124.1)}}\) (asimptote \(670,521.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,780$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,646.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17,646.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,926$ on 2020-10-11

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,072$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,997.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 179.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,997.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 181.9)}}\) (asimptote \(109.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,016$ on 2020-10-11

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,712$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,592.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 176.8)}}\) (asimptote \(56,592.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $631$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{963.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 176.4)}}\) (asimptote \(963.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,043$ on 2020-10-11

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $152,404$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429,946.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 229.3)}}\) (asimptote \(429,946.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,605$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,837.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 226.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,837.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,392$ on 2020-10-11

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,330.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,330.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-10-11

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,063$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,280.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,280.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(85.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-10-11

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,516$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,462.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(101,462.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,052$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,839.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,839.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $776$ on 2020-10-11

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,936$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,440.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 160.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,440.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $128$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(128.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,991$ on 2020-10-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Mauritania recovered 96%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 96%
Madagascar recovered 88%
Senegal recovered 63%
Malawi recovered 57%
Rwanda recovered 41%

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,550$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,153.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 92.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,153.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $163$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(158.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $113$ on 2020-10-11

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,154$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,499.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 100.6)}}\) (asimptote \(19,499.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 82.4)}}\) (asimptote \(124.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $236$ on 2020-10-11

Madagascar⮸

Population $27,691,018$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,718$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,241.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,241.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 67.2)}}\) (asimptote \(231.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $439$ on 2020-10-11

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,268$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,010.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,010.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $314$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(322.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,657$ on 2020-10-11